Prospective analysis of soybean distribution in the Tocantins state considering climate change scenarios

ABSTRACT Soybean is one of the agroenergy crops greatest supply and demand in Brazilian economy. Even though positive slopes productivity curves are constantly perceptible, demands for arable land evolving wildly, inevitably promoting deforestation actions deleterious effects on natural biogeochemical cycles, such as carbon cycle. Several environmental models used to explain these complex phenomena, whose variables change spatially temporally a function economic, social factors. Therefore, this study aimed at prospecting soybean cultivation area using territorial dynamics model (Dinamica EGO), regions where sustainable use conservation units located Tocantins state, considering different climate risk scenarios based water requirement satisfaction indexes (WRSI), calculated daily average rainfall temperature data from MIROC5 global model. The WRSI contributed greater exploitation resources around preservation areas Ilha do Bananal/ Cantão, Lago de Palmas Serra Lajeado. Furthermore, possible decrease some recognized producing centers was prospected, well scenario distancing species cultivated areas, near future, mosaic Jalapão, which has become high climatic grain yields usually demanded by market.